
handle: 10584/2252
R e s ume nEste trabajo presenta una aproximación de corte geográficoy estadístico a la problemática del homicidio en la ciudad deBarranquilla. El estudio se concentra en los patrones espaciales dedifusión del fenómeno, asimismo en un análisis que correlaciona lapresencia de la fuerza pública en la ciudad, medida por la cantidad deComandos de Atención Inmediata (CAI) de la Policía por barrio, conla tasa de homicidio para el período 2002-2008, así como con unavariable espacial de control relacionada con las zonas que alcanzaronmayores tasas que el promedio de la ciudad.El análisis econométrico confirma que la presencia de la fuerzapública reduce la probabilidad de que cada barrio consideradoindividualmente tenga mayores tasas de homicidio; de igual maneraevidencia el carácter marginalmente decreciente de dicha relación yque el homicidio relacionado con atraco es la modalidad que más seve afectada por dicha variable.Los resultados alcanzados permiten simular escenarios de intervenciónque optimicen la presencia de la fuerza pública, asumiendo mínimoscostos.Palabras claves : Violencia, análisis espacial, Barranquilla.Clasificación jel : H40, R00.A b s t r a c tThis document makes a geographical and statistical analysis ofhomicide rates in Barranquilla. The research deals with the spatialdiffusion patterns, as so as the correlation between the police forcepresence measured through CAI (Local Police Stations) by communityand the homicide rate for the period 2002-2008, taking into accounta spatial correlated control variable, namely the zones that reachedover the average violence levels.Econometric analysis confirmed a reduction in the probability thateach community gets over the average violence levels when the policeforce presence increases, and the marginally decreasing type of thisrelation. It was detected that there is a deepest relation between thevariables in the case of the homicide related to stealing.The results are used in a simulation of cost minimizing public forcepresence scenarios.Keywords : Violence, spatial analysis, Barranquilla.Jel codes : H40, R00.
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