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Estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio: Aplicación a Colombia/Estimation of the real exchange rate equilibrium: Application to Colombia

Authors: Jaime Silva Gonzalez; Universidad del Norte;

Estimación de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio: Aplicación a Colombia/Estimation of the real exchange rate equilibrium: Application to Colombia

Abstract

R e s ume nEl objetivo de este trabajo es reunir evidencia empírica para discernirel impacto de la tasa de cambio real sobre la economía colombianadurante el período 1990-2002. El problema a la hora de encontrareste impacto consiste en la estimación de la tasa de cambio real deequilibrio, aquella que es consistente con la obtención simultánea delos equilibrios externo e interno. En este sentido, para lograr estecometido se recurre al enfoque desarrollado por Edwards (1988). Estemodelo identifica un conjunto de variables exógenas fundamentalesque determinan los mencionados equilibrios. A partir de aquí seconstruye un modelo de forma reducida para Colombia que relacionala tasa de cambio real con algunas de las variables propuestas en elmodelo. Finalmente, se explica que la tasa de cambio real se apreciacon shocks positivos de la tasa de interés real y se deprecia con el altoservicio de la deuda, términos de intercambio volátiles, y la variablede formación bruta de capital.Palabras claves : Tasa de cambio real, Colombia, equilibrio.Clasificación jel : C13, C22, E43, E44, E47.A b s t r a c tThe aim of this study is to gather empirical evidence to discern theimpact of real exchange rate on the Colombian economy during 1990to 2002. The problem when you try to find this impact is the estimationof the real exchange rate of equilibrium, the one that is consistentwhit the simultaneous acquisition of external and internal balance. Inthis regard to achieve this goal are we used the approach developedby Edwards (1988). This model indentifies a set of key exogenousvariables that determinate those equilibriums. From this we developa reduced model for Colombia that relates the real exchange rate withsome of the variables proposed in the model. Finally we find that thereal exchange rate appreciates with positive shocks to real interestrates and depreciates with the high debt service, volatile term of tradeand with the variable of gross capital formation.Keywords : Real exchange rate, Colombia, equilibrium.jel codes : C13, C22, E43, E44, E47.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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