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Two Relevant Forecasting Problems for Practitioners in Finance: Equity Risk Premium and Non-Performing Loans

Authors: Cortés Sánchez, David;

Two Relevant Forecasting Problems for Practitioners in Finance: Equity Risk Premium and Non-Performing Loans

Abstract

The thesis aims to substantiate whether macroeconomic factors indicators are relevant to predict both in-sample and out-of-sample assets' future performance focusing on two well-studied themes in financial economics and banking: First, the ability to predict the equity risk premium, and second, the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans (NPL) rates. The dissertation is divided in three chapters. Chapter 1, entitled "Forecasting the equity risk premium in the European Monetary Union", investigates the capacity of multiple economic and technical variables to predict the Euro area equity risk premium. The chapter examines the performance of several variables that could be good predictors of the equity risk premium in the European Monetary Union for a period that spans from 2000 to 2020. Chapter 2, entitled "Forecasting the EMU equity risk premium with regression trees", expands on the previous chapter and investigates whether popular machine learning algorithms, such as classification and regression trees (CART), can help to improve equity risk premium forecasts. Finally, chapter 3, entitled "Macro determinants of non-performing loans: A comparative analysis between consumer and mortgage loans", examines the influence of several macroeconomic factors on delinquency rates using dynamic panel data techniques.

Keywords

equity risk premium,, non-performing loans, forecasting, UNESCO::CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, regression trees, dynamic panel data, asset allocation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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