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Auf der Suche nach dem "Turbo-Arbeitsmarkt": Zwischenbericht an die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) zum Projekt "Restrukturierung des Arbeitsmarktes. Disaggregierte Längsschnittanalysen mit der IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe"

Authors: Erlinghagen, Marcel; Knuth, Matthias;

Auf der Suche nach dem "Turbo-Arbeitsmarkt": Zwischenbericht an die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) zum Projekt "Restrukturierung des Arbeitsmarktes. Disaggregierte Längsschnittanalysen mit der IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe"

Abstract

The transition from an industrial to a service society implies changes in the way the labour market functions. Quite a few authors take it for granted that these changes - along with globalisation, increased competition and shorter innovation cycles - would drive organisations into higher degrees of external-numerical flexibility. As a consequence, job stability is assumed to decline, mobility on the labour market is believed to rise, and the risk of unemployment is alleged to proliferate. In this paper, straightforward descriptive methods will be applied to the IAB Employment Subsample, a scientific use file made up of event-history-data, in order to test these assumptions for the West German labour market during the years 1976 to 1995. It turns out that a general acceleration of the labour market is out of the question. Job mobility, measured as rates of entry into and exit out of employment relations with individual employers, is found to have been stagnating or even slightly declining since the seventies of the last century. Rather than deteriorating, job stability has actually been improving over time. Neither has unemployment increasingly become a "normal" experience within occupational careers, nor have changes between occupations become more frequent. Most of these general findings still hold true when the description is broken down by gender, skills level, and establishment size. In the end, the paper does not only rebut the idea of a high velocity labour market but it also calls into question the opposite claim made by some authors that the German labour market has become "sclerotic" because of its regulation. The relatively young and rapidly developing segments of the service sector as well as small establishments in general are not only the principal source of employment growth but also display a growing continuity of employer-employee-relations. This implies the conclusion that sustainable job growth in an increasingly service-oriented and knowledge-based society calls for reliable and durable employment relationships.

Beim Übergang von der Industrie- zur Dienstleistungsgesellschaft ist mit Veränderungen auch auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zu rechnen. Eine Reihe von Autoren geht davon aus, dass diese Veränderungen zusammen mit Globalisierung, verschärfter Konkurrenz und kürzeren Innovationszyklen die Betriebe zu einer größeren extern-numerischen Flexibilisierung veranlassen würden. In Folge dessen müsse die Stabilität der Beschäftigung sinken, die Mobilität der Beschäftigten auf dem Arbeitsmarkt müsse zunehmen ("Turbo-Arbeitsmarkt"), und das Risiko der Arbeitslosigkeit werde verallgemeinert. Der Beitrag überprüft diese Annahme mit Hilfe einfacher deskriptiver Verfahren auf Basis der Verlaufsdaten der IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe für den westdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt der Jahre 1976 bis 1995. Es zeigt sich, dass von einer allgemeinen Zunahme der Arbeitsmarktdynamik keine Re- de sein kann. Die Arbeitsmarktmobilität, gemessen an den Ein- und Austrittsraten in und aus Beschäftigung, stagniert seit den 70er Jahren des letzten Jahrhunderts bzw. zeigt sogar eine leicht abnehmende Tendenz. Die Stabilität von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen nimmt im Zeitverlauf nicht ab, sondern zu; darüber hinaus wird weder Arbeitslosigkeit mehr und mehr zum "Normalfall" in Erwerbsverläufen von Arbeitnehmern, noch werden Wechsel der beruflichen Tätigkeit häufiger. Diese generellen Befunde gelten im wesentlich auch bei einer Disaggregation nach Geschlecht, Qualifikationsniveau und Betriebsgröße.

Keywords

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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