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EconStor
Research . 2006
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Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates

Authors: Alexius, Annika; Post, Erik;

Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates

Abstract

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long run equilibrium relationships between the levels of the variables are included in the empirical specification. Another major difference between the models with the opposite implication for the shock creation versus shock absorption debate is that non-fundamental exchange rate shocks have much larger effects on output and inflation in the cointegrated models. Finally, impulse response functions in the first difference specification die out within a year whereas adjustment to long run equilibrium continues for up to ten years in the cointegrated models. Hence a correct specification of the long-run equilibrium dynamics of exchange rates is essential for capturing also short-run behavior of exchange rates.

Country
Sweden
Related Organizations
Keywords

cointegration, VAR-Modell, Economics, ddc:330, Exchange rates, Konjunkturpolitik, Wechselkurs, OECD-Staaten, Kointegration, Schock, asymmetric shocks, Exchange rates; asymmetric shocks; structural VAR; cointegration, structural VAR, Flexibler Wechselkurs, Nationalekonomi, C32, F31, jel: jel:F31, jel: jel:C32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average
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