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The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Authors: Fritzi Koehler-Geib;

The Uncertainty Channel of Contagion

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the spread of stock market crises, both theoretically and empirically. The effect of uncertainty about the fundamentals on investment decisions is an important cause of financial crises propagating across countries. Firstly, a coordination game on investment illustrates the increasing effect of a surprise crisis in one country on the probability of a crisis in a second country through higher uncertainty there. An anticipated initial crisis generates the opposite effect. Secondly, these theoretical predictions are tested empirically. Fixed effects panel estimations validate the impact of the initial crisis on uncertainty in potentially-affected countries. Subsequently, probit estimations confirm the positive impact of uncertainty on the crisis probability in the affected economy. The results are robust across various specifications.

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Keywords

Capital Flows, Coordination Failure, ddc:330, Sudden Stops, Global Games, C72, D82, Capital Flows, Government debt, Sudden Stops, Global Games, Coordination Failure, D84, F21, F32, F34, Government debt, F41, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:C72, jel: jel:D82, jel: jel:F21, jel: jel:F32, jel: jel:F41, jel: jel:F34

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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