
handle: 10419/59622
Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.
forecast of future demand, ddc:330, mechanism design of capacity markets, prediction market for continuous variables, winner-takes-all contract, D51, D6, D8 [Forecast of electricity demand, power generation planning, implementation of prediction markets, forecast of future demand, mechanism design of capacity markets, prediction market for continuous variables, winner-takes-all contract, index contract. JEL Classification Numbers], forecast of electricity demand, implementation of prediction markets, electricity market design, prediction markets, index contract, power generation planning, jel: jel:D44
forecast of future demand, ddc:330, mechanism design of capacity markets, prediction market for continuous variables, winner-takes-all contract, D51, D6, D8 [Forecast of electricity demand, power generation planning, implementation of prediction markets, forecast of future demand, mechanism design of capacity markets, prediction market for continuous variables, winner-takes-all contract, index contract. JEL Classification Numbers], forecast of electricity demand, implementation of prediction markets, electricity market design, prediction markets, index contract, power generation planning, jel: jel:D44
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