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EconStor
Research . 2010
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Monetary policy committees and model uncertainty

Authors: Tillmann, Peter;

Monetary policy committees and model uncertainty

Abstract

We introduce heterogeneity into a monetary policy committee by allowing the degree of model uncertainty to differ across members. It is shown that in this framework the stage at which members reach consensus matters. An aggregation protocol under which members only average policy deemed optimal from each member's point of view leads to more volatility compared to an alternative protocol in which members agree on a common worst-case scenario from which optimal policy is then derived. The reason is that inflation, output and the interest rate are convex functions of each member's idiosyncratic degree of model uncertainty. If the degree of model uncertainty becomes more heterogenous, inflation volatility falls due to more vigorous stabilization policy. The degree of heterogeneity across members is therefore an important determinant of macroeconomic volatility. Interestingly, the implications for the committee design under a min-max approach to model uncertainty are identical to those derived from a Bayesian approach.

Country
Germany
Related Organizations
Keywords

Wirtschaftsmodell, Geldpolitik, 330, Economics, optimal monetary policy, Prognose, Model Uncertainty, robustness, model uncertainty, Robustness, E31, E32, Optimal Monetary Policy, ddc:330, Gruppenentscheidung, Wirtschaft, Robustness, Model Uncertainty, Monetary Policy Committee, Optimal Monetary Policy, Inflation, Monetary Policy Committee, Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit, Theorie, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E31

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green