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Multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with smooth transitions in conditional correlations

Authors: Annastiina Silvennoinen; Timo Teräsvirta;

Multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with smooth transitions in conditional correlations

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The approach adopted here is based on the decomposition of the covariances into correlations and standard deviations. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to an endogenous or exogenous transition variable. An LM test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the Standard & Poor 500 stock index completes the paper. The model is estimated for the full five-dimensional system as well as several subsystems and the results discussed in detail.

Keywords

ddc:330, ARCH-Modell, Dynamic conditional correlation, Börsenkurs, multivariate GARCH; constant conditional correlation; dynamic conditional correlation; return comovement; variable correlation GARCH model; volatility model evaluation, Volatilität, Volatility model evaluation, C51, C52, Return comovement, Multivariate GARCH, G10, Multivariate Analyse, C32, Constant conditional correlation, C12, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:G1

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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