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FCIs and economic activity: Some international evidence

Authors: Charles Goodhart; Boris Hofmann;

FCIs and economic activity: Some international evidence

Abstract

A Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), a weighted average of the short-term real interest rate and the real exchange rate, is a commonly used indicator of aggregate demand conditions. In-sample evidence for the US, the euro area, Japan and the UK suggests that a Financial Conditions Index (FCI), also comprising property prices and share prices, would be a better indicator for economic activity than the standard MCI. Out-of sample the FCI also performs better than the MCI, but its overall performance is mixed. An FCI would have predicted the recent economic downturn in Japan and the UK, but not in the US and the euro area.

Keywords

Monetärer Indikator, Immobilienpreis, ddc:330, Börsenkurs, USA, Konjunkturindikator, Schätzung

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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