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Research . 2025
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Welfare effects of pension reforms

Authors: Jia, Zhiyang; Kruse, Herman; Vigtel, Trond Christian;

Welfare effects of pension reforms

Abstract

This paper investigates the welfare effects of two types of pension reforms aimed at addressing challenges due to aging populations. The study uses a framework by Kolsrud et al. (2024), decomposing welfare into consumption smoothing and fiscal externality effects. Norwegian administrative data is used to study the welfare effects of two reforms. The first is a hypothetical budget-neutral reform steepening pension incentives, which rewards late retirees. The second is the 2011 Norwegian old-age pension flexibility reform. We find that the first (hypothetical) reform is regressive. Based on consumption differences, such a reform incurs substantial consumption smoothing costs and results in significant overall welfare costs (0.4-0.5 NOK per 1 NOK transferred), highlighting the negative welfare impact of heavily penalizing early retirement. Conversely, the 2011 Norwegian old-age pension flexibility reform, which lowered the eligibility age (from age 67 to age 62) had a near-zero effect on total labor supply. Quasi-experimental evidence suggests this reform shifted the consumption distribution upwards and resulted in welfare gains, estimated at around NOK 138,000 per affected individual.

Country
Norway
Related Organizations
Keywords

J26, Pension reform, retirement, ddc:330, pension claiming age, welfare effects, consumption

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green