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EconStor
Research . 2017
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Monetary aggregates and monetary policy in Peru

Authors: Lahura, Erick;

Monetary aggregates and monetary policy in Peru

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the usefulness of monetary aggregates as information variables\ud in the conduct of monetary policy. For this purpose, some recent advances on the topic were\ud used, which include the analysis of both real-time and revised final data, and the application of\ud Bayesian model averaging to allow for model uncertainty regarding the lag length and number of\ud cointegrating relationships. In this paper, money is considered as an information variable for Wt\ud (e.g. output or prices) if the following two criteria are satisfied: (i) Mt is strongly exogenous,\ud and (ii) Mt Granger-causes Wt. Strong exogeneity is relevant because it validates conditional\ud forecasting of Wt using monetary aggregates as conditioning variables. The results show no strong\ud evidence supporting the usefulness of monetary aggregates as information variables for prices or\ud output. However, this does not preclude their potential use as information variables for other\ud macroeconomic targets such as financial stability.

Keywords

strong exogeneity, cointegration, ddc:330, monetary policy, ems, Granger causality, E58, Bayesian Model Averaging, real-time data, C32, E52, monetary aggregates

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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