Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
addClaim

Ao novo modelo de compartilhamento de riscos de demanda da ANTT e análise das carteiras eficientes de garantias e potenciais deságios tarifários

Authors: Rocha, Katia; Marques, Naielly Lopes;

Ao novo modelo de compartilhamento de riscos de demanda da ANTT e análise das carteiras eficientes de garantias e potenciais deságios tarifários

Abstract

At the end of 2022, Brazil's National Land Transport Agency (ANTT) launched a public hearing on the proposal for a new risk allocation model in road infrastructure concession contracts. This study illustrates, using the real options methodology, how the proposed design modifies the concession's risk-return structures and influences the investment decision in the concession and the expected value of the upside risk sharing mechanism (cap) and downside (floor). Our analysis allows the granting authority to calculate the trade-off between the establishment of cap and floor bands, flexibility of Capex triggers (anticipation of the start of the risk sharing mechanism) and potential tariff discounts. The study shows that there is an optimal frontier of efficient portfolios (bands x triggers) that maintains the same risk-return structure and, consequently, discounts. In this sense, the granting power can allocate itself wherever it most desires depending on the concession object, which can be useful for analyzing regulatory impacts caused by this mechanism. This research contributes to the literature on the applications of real options in infrastructure projects, showing how the clauses governing managerial flexibilities in contracts must be carefully designed to achieve the objectives of the government and the private investor.

Keywords

road concessions, R42, cap and floor, ddc:330, risk sharing mechanism, M21, R48, G32, guarantee, M48, Brazil

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Upload OA version
Are you the author of this publication? Upload your Open Access version to Zenodo!
It’s fast and easy, just two clicks!