
handle: 10419/290114
This paper investigates whether sanctions imposed in the wake of the Ukraine crisis by Western countries and Russia have been evaded by analyzing monthly product-level trade patterns. Consolidating different methods from the literature related to the detection of illicit trade, I find that goods facing sanctions imposed by the Russian government in particular have most likely been evaded. While the detected amounts do not question the general effectiveness of the sanctions, they are non-negligible. Roughly US$482 million, or 8.56% of the total estimated trade loss of $5.633 billion from the Russian sanctions, may have been smuggled either directly or through its neighboring countries. As more than half of the estimated evasion involves trade flows through Belarus and Kazakhstan, the findings highlight the importance of trade policy coordination with third countries, especially if these are part of the same customs union.
embargo, smuggling, foreign policy, ddc:330, F14, sanctions, F13, evasion, F51
embargo, smuggling, foreign policy, ddc:330, F14, sanctions, F13, evasion, F51
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
