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handle: 10419/25177
We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series at time t given observations of the same and perhaps other time series available at time t - 1. We discuss sieve estimates which are a nonparametric versions of the Koenker-Bassett regression quantiles and do not require the specification of the innovation law. We prove consistency of those estimates and illustrate their good performance for light- and heavy-tailed distributions of the innovations with a small simulation study. As an economic application, we use the estimates for calculating the value at risk of some stock price series.
Conditional Quantile, Time Series, Sieve Estimate, Neural Network, Qualitative Threshold Model, Uniform Consistency, Value at Risk, neural network, Neural Network, 17 Wirtschaft, Schätztheorie, Time Series, qualitative threshold model, 510, value at risk, Conditional Quantile, Uniform Consistency, Value at Risk, Sieve Estimate, C14, ddc:510, ddc:330, 330 Wirtschaft, Börsenkurs, conditional quantile, uniform consistency, Zeitreihenanalyse, sieve estimate, Maßzahl, time series, Qualitative Threshold Model, Theorie, C45, jel: jel:C45, jel: jel:C14, ddc: ddc:510
Conditional Quantile, Time Series, Sieve Estimate, Neural Network, Qualitative Threshold Model, Uniform Consistency, Value at Risk, neural network, Neural Network, 17 Wirtschaft, Schätztheorie, Time Series, qualitative threshold model, 510, value at risk, Conditional Quantile, Uniform Consistency, Value at Risk, Sieve Estimate, C14, ddc:510, ddc:330, 330 Wirtschaft, Börsenkurs, conditional quantile, uniform consistency, Zeitreihenanalyse, sieve estimate, Maßzahl, time series, Qualitative Threshold Model, Theorie, C45, jel: jel:C45, jel: jel:C14, ddc: ddc:510
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