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Research . 2019
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Markov-switching proxy BVARs

Authors: Zakipour-Sabery, Shayan;

Markov-switching proxy BVARs

Abstract

This paper extends the Bayesian proxy SVAR model (BP-SVAR) of Caldara and Herbst (2019) to examine changes in the transmission of structural shocks in the presence of regime shifts in an economy. I provide a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model is then used to examine the role of credit spreads on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the United States between 1994-2007, where identification is achieved using a proxy constructed from high-frequency financial data. The main finding is that the effect of credit spreads differs across regime. Credit spreads significantly change the transmission of monetary policy shocks from 2000-2007 supporting Caldara and Herbst (2019), although, their inclusion appears to only alter the response of industrial production in the short-term with no other significant changes to the rest of the economy during the mid to late 1990s. This result highlights the empirical relevance of accounting for regime changes when assessing the impact of economic shocks.

Keywords

External Instruments, E3, Proxy BVAR, ddc:330, Markov-Switching, Monetary Policy shocks, C2, C11

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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