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Research . 2020
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Exogenous oil supply shocks in OPEC and non-OPEC countries

Authors: Güntner, Jochen; Henßler, Johannes;

Exogenous oil supply shocks in OPEC and non-OPEC countries

Abstract

This note expands Kilian's (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our extended series of exogenous oil supply shocks displays statistically significant correlation with alternative estimates of oil supply shocks based on vector-autoregressive models. At the same time, it requires a limited number of assumptions about the counterfactual evolution of production in the countries under consideration rather than the hotly debated identifying restrictions inherent in multivariate structural models.

Keywords

Q31, ddc:330, N50, Counterfactual analysis, Exogenous events, Crude oil production, Q35, Oil supply shocks

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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