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Trend, seasonality and seasonal adjustment

Authors: A. C. Harvey; Pedro L. Valls Pereira;

Trend, seasonality and seasonal adjustment

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to set out criteria for defining trend and seasonal components in a time series. The criteria are set up primarily in terms of properties involving prediction. Because a structural time series model is set up in terms of components of interest, the relevant information on these components is given directly. It is shown that the Basic Structural Model has statistical properties, which are not dissimilar to the ARIMA model used by other authors, but the B. S. M. is only one model within a range of models all of which satisfy our proposed criteria. This methodology is applied to two series: US Investment and Industrial Production in Brazil.

Keywords

ddc:330

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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