Tipo de cambio real de largo plazo en Argentina: 1961-2017
Tipo de cambio real de largo plazo en Argentina: 1961-2017
Through a VECM, during 1961-2017 in Argentina, we found cointegration between the Multilateral Real Exchange Rate and four fundamental variables: Net Foreign Assets, Public Expenditure, Terms of Trade, and Productivity. Defining the Real Exchange Rate as domestic prices in dollars, we estimate a positive relationship with its fundamentals except for the Terms of Trade. The model anticipates the large devaluations that occurred in 1975 (Rodrigazo), 1981 (Martínez de Hoz), 2002 (end of the Convertibility) and 2015 (end of the "cepo cambiario"). The speed of adjustment is 30% per year. Finally, during 2012-2017 the model estimates an average misalignment (real appreciation) of 15% per year.
net foreign assets, productivity, multilateral real exchange rate, ddc:330, F14, terms of trade, Argentina, C13, VECM, F31, public expenditure
net foreign assets, productivity, multilateral real exchange rate, ddc:330, F14, terms of trade, Argentina, C13, VECM, F31, public expenditure
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