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Is potential output growth falling?

Authors: Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan;

Is potential output growth falling?

Abstract

We document differences between the evolution of a measure of potential output growth and the evolution of a measure of potential output per capita growth using time-varying parameter models estimated for four advanced economies (Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). The evidence supports the view that most of the slowdown in potential output growth occurred prior to the Great Recession. However, the potential output per capita growth rate: 1) remained relatively constant in Canada; and 2) decreased less (more) than the potential output growth rate in Germany and the United States (in the United Kingdom). These results indicate that: 1) the decline in potential output growth in Canada is mainly associated with the decrease in population growth; and 2) the decrease in population growth is an important factor in order to explain the decline in potential output in Germany and the United States, but not in the United Kingdom.

Country
Germany
Related Organizations
Keywords

O49 - Other, C50 - General, ddc:330, O40 - General, Potential output growth rate, O41, O47, Potential output per capita growth rate, Rates of growth consistent with a constant unemployment rate

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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