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The inflow-effect: Trader inflow and bubble formation in asset markets

Authors: Michael Kirchler; Caroline Bonn; Jürgen Huber; Michael Razen;

The inflow-effect: Trader inflow and bubble formation in asset markets

Abstract

We investigate the impact of trader and cash inflow on bubble formation in asset markets with a novel design featuring heterogeneous information and a constant fundamental value. Implementing seven treatments we find that (i) only the joint inflow of traders and cash triggers bubbles ("inflow-effect"). (ii) In treatments with trader and cash inflow only in the first half of the market, prices converge to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset. This inflow-effect is very robust as we observe bubbles in almost all of the 24 markets with trader inflow. The analysis of traders' beliefs reveals that (iii) despite fundamentals staying constant, beliefs about fundamentals co-move with upwardly trending prices. Finally, we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe bubbles.

Keywords

inflow-effect, ddc:330, bubble, market efficiency, Experimental finance, inflow-effect, trader inflow, asset market, bubble, market efficiency, asset market, D84, trader inflow, C92, G10, experimental finance, jel: jel:C92, jel: jel:D84, jel: jel:G10

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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