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Transmissão da volatilidade nos mercados

O caso dos metais preciosos
Authors: Neves, Diogo Alexandre Almeida;

Transmissão da volatilidade nos mercados

Abstract

Esta investigação analisa a transmissão da volatilidade entre os metais preciosos e os mercados bolsistas. É analisada a transmissão da volatilidade de quatro metais preciosos: o ouro, a prata, o paládio e a platina, e o índice S&P500. Recorreu-se à metodologia GARCH para estimar as suas volatilidades. A endogeneidade da volatilidade foi analisada recorrendo ao modelo VAR. A amostra selecionada foi com dados diários para o período de 1 de novembro de 1993 até 30 de setembro de 2014 para o ouro, prata, paládio, platina, S&P500, VIX e Libor. Os resultados dos testes de causalidade e da decomposição da variância suportam que não existe contágio da volatilidade entre o índice S&P500 e os metais preciosos. O ouro é o metal que mais contagia os outros metais preciosos. Os resultados encontrados indicam que os metais preciosos podem ser uma boa opção para conter o risco das carteiras de investimento.

This research analyzes the transmission of volatility between four precious metals: gold, silver, palladium and platinum and stock markets: S&P500 index. Was used the GARCH methodology for estimating their volatilities. The endogeneity of volatility is assessed using the VAR methodology. The sample was selected with daily data for the period from November 1, 1993 to September 30, 2014 for gold, silver, palladium, platinum, S&P500, VIX and Libor. The causality tests and variance decomposition results support that there are no contagion effect between the S&P500 index and individual precious metals. Gold was the metal that most contagious other precious metals. The results indicate that precious metals can be a good option to contain the investment portfolios risk.

Country
Portugal
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Keywords

Garch, Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Contágio, Metais Preciosos, Var, Volatilidade

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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