
handle: 10400.5/99770
A deep learning binary classifier is proposed to test if asset returns follow martingale difference sequences. The Neyman-Pearson classification paradigm is applied to control the type I error of the test. In Monte Carlo simulations, I find that this approach has better power properties than variance ratio and portmanteau tests against several alternative processes. I apply this procedure to a large set of exchange rate returns and find that it detects several potential deviations from the martingale difference hypothesis that the conventional statistical tests fail to capture.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Martingale Difference Hypothesis, Convolutional Network, Exchange Rates, Portmanteau Test;, Variance Ratio Test
Martingale Difference Hypothesis, Convolutional Network, Exchange Rates, Portmanteau Test;, Variance Ratio Test
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
