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UTL Repository
Master thesis . 2014
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Abordagem de opções reais : a opção de diferimento e o valor do terreno

Authors: Mondril, Frederico Luís Ferreira Lopes Camacho;

Abordagem de opções reais : a opção de diferimento e o valor do terreno

Abstract

A comummente aceite abordagem do valor atualizado líquido para a avaliação de ativos imobiliários e investimentos imobiliários pode não ser a mais adequada por não captar as incertezas dos investimentos. Por outro lado, a abordagem do valor atualizado líquido ignora a flexibilidade de gestão. Em propriedades para a promoção imobiliária esta flexibilidade materializa-se na decisão de início da promoção, no faseamento da promoção, no abandono da promoção, entre outros graus de liberdade. Uma abordagem alternativa, que permita incorporar no valor da propriedade esta flexibilidade e a incerteza quanto ao preço de venda e o custo de desenvolvimento, usa as opções reais para a avaliação destes ativos. Esta tese utiliza a estrutura teórica de option-pricing para avaliar a opção real de desenvolvimento e a opção de diferimento da promoção em terrenos do mercado imobiliário de Lisboa. Neste estudo, identifica-se um prémio da opção de desenvolvimento, que valorize a opção de diferimento, com valor médio de 27,38%.

Well accepted Net Present Value approach to investment valuation might not be the most appropriate one as it does not capture future uncertainty. In addition, Net Present Value approach ignores management flexibility. Examples of Management flexibility applied to urban land parcels are decision about developing or not, the timing of developing, postponing or not, among other options. An alternative approach considers real options and option-pricing models to evaluate it, capturing the effect of uncertainty of future costs and prices and management flexibility. This thesis uses an option-pricing theoretical model to determine development option and option to delay of Lisbon urban land. In this research, the estimated delay premium embedded in development option has an average value of 27,38%.

Mestrado em Gestão e Avaliação Imobiliária

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Development option, Valor do terreno, Option to delay, Investment analysis, Avaliação de investimento, Opção Real, Land value, Real estate development, Opção de desenvolvimento, Promoção imobiliária, Opção de diferimento, Real option

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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