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Master thesis . 2023
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The determinants of expected credit losses overlays recognition

Authors: Minhota, João Miguel Lopes;

The determinants of expected credit losses overlays recognition

Abstract

As principais alterações resultantes da substituição da IAS 39 pela IFRS 9, incluem a introdução de um novo modelo de perdas esperadas (ECL) para estimar perdas por imparidade em ativos financeiros mensurados ao custo amortizado. A inclusão de uma abordagem mais virada para o futuro representou uma melhoria em relação à norma anterior. Aumentando a transparência e facilitando um reconhecimento mais precoce e completo das perdas por imparidade. Contudo, o ambiente de incerteza causado pela crise pandémica dificultou a capacidade do novo modelo de prever perdas de crédito e forçou os bancos a ajustar o modelo de imparidade através de overlays discricionários. Colocando em causa a qualidade da informação financeira. Neste contexto, este estudo foca-se na identificação dos determinantes do reconhecimento de overlays com o propósito de ajudar a identificar as razões de tais decisões discricionárias e assim contribuir para a mitigação de potenciais enviesamentos decorrentes das mesmas. Os resultados, baseados numa amostra dos bancos mais significativos da Europa, entre 2020 e 2021 (período de crise pandémica), mostram que a dimensão, a rendibilidade, a distribuição de dividendos e a qualidade do crédito influenciam positivamente os montantes de overlay. Enquanto que a relação entre o rácio de capital e overlays mostra um sinal negativo. Questionando a precisão da dimensão como medida de diversificação e alertando para preocupações decorrentes da suavização dos ganhos e gestão de capital. Os resultados também sugerem que, durante uma crise pandémica que promoveu a incerteza, os bancos sentiram a necessidade de sinalizar a sua posição financeira através de overlays, da distribuição de dividendos, e da gestão de ganhos. Onde o efeito de sinalização foi mais forte para os bancos que receberam protecção governamental. O que sugere que os bancos tiram partido do apoio governamental para darem respostas mais acentuadas à crise pandémica e aumentarem o efeito de sinalização aos investidores externos.

The main amendments resulting from the replacement of the International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39 by the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9, include the introduction of a new Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model to estimate impairment losses on financial assets measured at amortized cost. The inclusion of a more forwardlooking approach represented an improvement on the prior standard. Enhancing transparency and facilitating an earlier and fuller recognition of impairment losses. However the environment of uncertainty caused by COVID-19 crisis, hampered the new model’s ability to predict credit losses and forced banks to adjust the impairment model through discretionary overlays. Putting at risk the quality of the financial information. In this context, this study focus on the identification of overlay determinants to help identify the roots of such discretionary decisions and mitigate potential biases arising from it. The results, based on a sample of the most significant banks in Europe, between 2020 and 2021 (pandemic crisis period), show that size, profitability, dividends distribution, and credit quality positively influence overlay amounts. While the regulatory capital association with overlays shows a negative sign. Questioning the accuracy of size as a measure of diversification, and shedding some light on earnings smoothing and capital management concerns. The results also suggest that, during a pandemic crisis that promoted uncertainty, banks felt the need to signal their financial position through overlays, dividend distribution, and earnings management. Where the signaling effect was stronger for banks that received government protection. Which suggests that banks take advantage of government support to take sharper responses to the pandemic crisis and increase the signaling effect to outside investors.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Mestrado Bolonha em Accounting

Country
Portugal
Keywords

setor bancário, banking sector, COVID-19, IFRS 9, overlays

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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