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handle: 10400.5/25511
A Crise Financeira Global conduziu a um aumento significativo das posições fiscais (isto é, défices orçamentais e dívida pública mais elevados), dando origem a inúmeras pesquisas académicas relativas à sustentabilidade fiscal. Muito embora existam bastantes estudos sobre a sustentabilidade fiscal nas economias mais avançadas, a nossa contribuição académica amplia este esforço de investigação ao continente Africano. Mais especificamente, analisamos a sustentabilidade das finanças públicas nos Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa (PALOP’s), através da aplicação de testes de estacionaridade aos rácios de dívida externa em percentagem do PIB, bem como a aplicação de testes de cointegração às receitas e despesas públicas (em percentagem do PIB) destes Países. Os nossos resultados empíricos para o período 1975-2019 sugerem que alguns PALOP apresentam uma posição fiscal comprometida do ponto de vista da sustentabilidade fiscal. Com efeito, a condição de solvência apenas é observada para o caso Angolano. Tendo em consideração o impacto económico-financeiro da presente situação pandémica, a questão da sustentabilidade fiscal irá constituir um relevante desafio futuro.
The Global Financial Crisis has typically led to a significant widening of fiscal positions (i.e. higher budget deficits and public debt), an issue that has been addressed by many researches on fiscal sustainability. Our aim in this study is to extend the extensive knowledge about fiscal policy sustainability in advanced economies by analysing the sustainability in the African continent. In particular, we examine the sustainability of public finance in Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP), using stationarity tests of external public debt-to-GDP ratios and cointegration tests between public revenue and public expenditure (as a percentage of GDP). Our findings for the period 1975-2019 suggest that some of the PALOP countries have endangered the sustainability of their corresponding fiscal positions. In fact, in our sample the solvency requirement seems to have been met only by Angola. In the context of a financial crisis, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, such sustainability issues are bound to be further challenged.
Stationarity, cointegration, Cointegration, cointegração, Debt Sustainability, Global Financial Crisis, crise financeira global, PALOP, Time Series, Debt sustainability, estacionariedade, política fiscal, Fiscal Policy, stationarity, Sustentabilidade da dívida, séries cronológicas, time series, global financial crisis, fiscal policy
Stationarity, cointegration, Cointegration, cointegração, Debt Sustainability, Global Financial Crisis, crise financeira global, PALOP, Time Series, Debt sustainability, estacionariedade, política fiscal, Fiscal Policy, stationarity, Sustentabilidade da dívida, séries cronológicas, time series, global financial crisis, fiscal policy
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