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Volatilidade implícita: estudo de caso

Authors: Vaz, Sílvia Fernanda Rehemtula;

Volatilidade implícita: estudo de caso

Abstract

Dada a atual conjuntura de instabilidade dos mercados financeiros, o estudo da volatilidade pode fornecer importantes pistas aos investidores, no sentido de estes aplicarem de forma eficiente os seus excedentes de capital, visto terem à sua escolha uma grande variedade de instrumentos financeiros com diferentes características de risco e rendibilidade. Com efeito, a globalização e o desenvolvimento das tecnologias de informação provocaram um ambiente altamente competitivo e constante mudança nos mercados financeiros. Neste contexto surgiram os índices de volatilidade implícita, que têm em conta opções financeiras no seu cálculo, em vez de ativos, com o preço das opções a refletir as expectativas de mercado em relação à volatilidade futura para um determinado período, geralmente para os trinta dias subsequentes. Nesta dissertação é feita uma análise empírica a seis índices de volatilidade implícita com relevância no mercado internacional, procurando entender as suas principais características, o seu comportamento, a sua relação com o índice subjacente e com as tendências do mercado. Foram analisados os índices VIX, VXD, VAEX, VBEL, VCAC e VFTSE, no período de 03/01/2000 a 01/04/2011, tendo-se verificado a existência de elevada correlação entre as rendibilidades diárias dos índices de volatilidade e dos índices de ações subjacentes, sendo essa associação em sentido inverso. Relativamente à correlação entre as cotações de fecho diárias, no período em análise, confirmou-se também a existência de correlação negativa em todos os pares de índices bolsistas mas não de forma forte.

Given the current situation of instability in financial markets, the study of volatility may provide important clues to investors in the sense that they operate efficiently their surplus capital, taking into account that they have to choose from a variety of financial instruments with different characteristics risk and profitability. Indeed, globalization and information technology led to a highly competitive and rapidly changing in financial markets. In this context appeared the implied volatility indices, that take into account the financial options in its calculation, rather than assets, with the option price reflecting market expectations regarding future volatility for a given period, usually for thirty days thereafter. In this paper it will be analyzed six indices of implied volatility with relevance in the international market, trying to understand its main characteristics, its behavior and its relationship with the underlying index and with market trends. I analyzed the indices VIX, VXD, VAEX, VBEL, VCAC and VFTSE, from 03/01/2000 to 01/04/2011, and it was found high correlation between the daily returns of volatility indices and the underlying stock index, with a reversed association. Regarding the correlation between the daily closing prices in the period under review, I also confirmed the existence of negative correlation for all pairs of stock indices but not in a strong way.

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Portugal
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Keywords

Índices de volatilidade implícita, Feelings of market, Modelo de Black-Scholes, Black-Scholes model, Implied volatility indices, Financial options, Sentimentos de mercado, Opções financeiras

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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