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Behavioural finance : herding behaviour in the cryptocurrency market

Authors: Dias, Nuno Lourinha Santos Ferreira;

Behavioural finance : herding behaviour in the cryptocurrency market

Abstract

Esta tese estuda a possibilidade de existência de “herding behaviour” e a sua intensidade no mercado e cryptomoedas. O estudo assume que este tipo de comportamento é um parâmetro fundamental na criação de elevado grau de volatilidade no mercado de cryptomoedas. São analisadas através dos modelos de CSAD de Chang et al. (2000) e Chiang and Zheng (2010) oito das maiores cryptomoedas em termos de capitalização, assim como o índice CCi30, durante o período de 1º de Janeiro de 2017 até o 1º de Janeiro de 2021. Os resultados são conclusivos, e mostram que o comportamento de “herding” está presente no mercado de cryptomoedas. Adicionalmente, o comportamento foi detetado como mais intenso durante períodos de variações positivas no mercado. A literatura revista aponta também que os investidores adotam comportamentos de “herding” de forma intencional baseados na opinião do “público” geral, sentimentos de entusiamo e de “não perder a oportunidade”. Este tipo de comportamento é inconsistente com as teorias financeiras modernas (“Efficient Market Hypothesis”).

This thesis examines the presence and the intensity of herding behaviour in the cryptocurrency market. It approaches herding concept as a fundamental piece on explaining the price volatility observed in the cryptocurrency market. In that sense, analysis on eight major cryptocurrencies and CCi30 index from the period of 1st of January 2017 to 1st of January 2021 was employed through the application of the CSAD models of Chang et al. (2000) and Chiang and Zheng (2010) to detect herding and its intensity across asymmetrical periods. The results point to the existence of herding in the cryptocurrency market with a high degree of confidence. Additionally, herding was found to be more intense during upward market movements. With strong indications based on reviewed literature that investors herd intentionally based on the sentiment of the masses to not miss out on an opportunity during bullish market trends. This type of behaviour is inconsistent with the efficiency market theory that reigns in today’s financial system.

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Portugal
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Keywords

Cryptocurrency, Especulação, Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Finanças comportamentais, Behavioural finance, Speculation, Cryptomoedas, Herding, Efficient market hypothesis

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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