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Modelización de series de tiempo macroeconómicas

Modelización de series de tempo macroeconómicas
Authors: Pérez Sanromán, Ana;

Modelización de series de tiempo macroeconómicas

Abstract

En este TFG se estudian las series de tiempo, una herramienta estadística útil para estudiar la evolución de unos datos en el tiempo. En particular se aplicará el estudio a las series de tiempo macroeconómicas, que se producen con periodicidad mensual o mayor, por su capacidad de predecir valores futuros a partir de valores pasados. El objetivo de este trabajo es modelizar una serie concreta, que en este caso será "Pasajeros totales del transporte aéreo en Galicia", para predecir futuros valores del número de pasajeros. En primer lugar, se introduce el concepto de series de tiempo, aportando las herramientas y técnicas necesarias para su análisis. Se presenta una metodología utilizada para el análisis de series temporales, llamada Box-Jenkins, que clasifica el proceso en tres etapas (identificación, estimación y validación del modelo) y usa los modelos ARIMA para modelizarlas. Estos modelos ARIMA (Autorregresivos Integrados de Medias Móviles) son de los más usados en este tipo de series de tiempo, y son descritos en esta sección. La última parte de este proceso consiste en obtener futuras predicciones de la serie de tiempo, en este caso, el total de pasajeros del tráfico aéreo.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

1207 Investigación operativa, 12 Matemáticas, 1209 Estadística, Investigación, Predicción, ARIMA, Series de tiempo, ARMA

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green