The dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum, a paralytic shellfish toxin producer, forms recurrent blooms in many estuaries and semi-enclosed marine areas. We designed a fuzzy logic model, based on historical ecological information and routinely monitored meteorological variables, to predict the occurrence and intensity of A. minutum proliferations in two selected harbours (Olímpic Harbour of Barcelona and Arenys Harbour) of the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean). The model showed the importance of long spells of calm weather in allowing the appearance of dense populations of A. minutum and successfully predicted 6 large blooms recorded in these harbours during the studied periods (1996-2002 for the Olímpic and 2000-2002 for Arenys). This result suggests that even with limited understanding of the processes affecting bloom dynamics, fuzzy models may be helpful in providing insight for management measures

This work was supported by EU project HABES, (EVK2-CT-2000-00092). We thank the “Pla de vigilància de fitoplàncton nociu i tòxic a la costa catalana” (Agència Catalana de l’Aigua, Generalitat de Catalunya) for phytoplankton data, and the Instituto Nacional de Meteorología and the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya for meteorological data

12th International Conference on Harmful Algae, Copenhagen, Denmark, 4-8 September 2006.-- 3 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables

Peer Reviewed