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Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Authors: Dakos, V.; Carpenter, S.R.; Brock, W.A.; Ellison, A.M.; Guttal, V.; Ives, A.R.; Kefi, S.; +4 Authors

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Abstract

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called 'early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Countries
France, Netherlands, France, United States, India
Keywords

Time Factors, regime shift, autocorrelation, skewness, variance, Diffusion, catastrophic shift, 47 alternative states, detrended 48 fluctuation analysis, Centre for Ecological Sciences, Ecology, critical transition, Q, R, nonlinearity, 006, climate tipping points, desertification, 004, 50 time-series analysis, Medicine, time-varying autoregressive models, ecosystems, Algorithms, Research Article, Science, Oceans and Seas, Systems Theory, BDS test, system, Environment, critical slowing-down, leading indicator, Models, Biological, models, Computer Simulation, resilience, Biology, spectral reddening, conditional heteroskedasticity, regime shifts, Models, Statistical, kurtosis, Reproducibility of Results, Models, Theoretical, states, potential analysis, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Lakes, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, catastrophic shifts

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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789
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