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Current Opinion in Systems Biology
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: Crossref
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DIGITAL.CSIC
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: DIGITAL.CSIC
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Quantifying and managing uncertainty in systems biology: Mechanistic and data-driven models

Authors: Eva Balsa-Canto; Nùria Campo-Manzanares; Artai R. Moimenta; Geoffrey Roudaut; Diego Troitiño-Jordedo;

Quantifying and managing uncertainty in systems biology: Mechanistic and data-driven models

Abstract

Uncertainty poses a significant challenge to the reliability and interpretability of systems biology models. This review focuses on reducible epistemic uncertainty arising from incomplete data, measurement errors, or limited biological knowledge. We examine how this uncertainty affects both mechanistic models —such as dynamic kinetic and genome-scale metabolic models— and data-driven models, including neural networks trained on time-series data. Strategies for quantifying and mitigating uncertainty are reviewed, including profile likelihoods, Bayesian inference, ensemble modelling, optimal experimental design and active learning. Through illustrative case studies, we show how data limitations, model structure, and experimental design influence uncertainty propagation and model predictions. Finally, in our outlook, we highlight key research avenues to build more robust models, including hybrid frameworks combining mechanistic models with machine learning to improve interpretability and predictive performance, advances in inference methods and tools, or the definition of benchmarks to support reproducibility and method comparison

This work has received funding from MCIU/AEI/FEDER grant reference: PID2021-126380OB-C32; Xunta de Galicia (IN607B 2023/04). EBC & GR acknowledge funding from EU Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 956126. EBC & ARM also acknowledge funding from the EU-Next Generation, in the framework of the General Invitation of the Spanish Government's public business entity Red.es to participate in talent attraction and retention programs within Investment 4 of Component 19 of the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan (Grant Number MMT24- IIM-01)

15 pages, 2 tables, 5 figures

Peer reviewed

Country
Spain
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    1
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
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