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pmid: 39534387
pmc: PMC11557119
handle: 10261/372718 , 11104/0359522 , 10278/5083171 , 2158/1401198 , 2318/2071113
pmid: 39534387
pmc: PMC11557119
handle: 10261/372718 , 11104/0359522 , 10278/5083171 , 2158/1401198 , 2318/2071113
Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 – 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
COVID-19; Distributed lag nonlinear models; Humidity; Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network; Precipitation; Solar radiation; Temperature; Time-series design, Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns, transmission, Temperature, COVID-19, Humidity, Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, Precipitation, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, covid-19, Environmental factors; Temperature; Relative humidity; Absolute humidity; Solar radiation; Precipitation; COVID-19; Pandemic; Meteorology; Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network; Time-series design; Two-stage time-series; distributed lag nonlinear models, Solar radiation, Original Research Article, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/11, Distributed lag nonlinear models, Covid-19 ; Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models ; Humidity ; Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network ; Precipitation ; Solar Radiation ; Temperature ; Time-series Design, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Time-series design
COVID-19; Distributed lag nonlinear models; Humidity; Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network; Precipitation; Solar radiation; Temperature; Time-series design, Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns, transmission, Temperature, COVID-19, Humidity, Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, Precipitation, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, covid-19, Environmental factors; Temperature; Relative humidity; Absolute humidity; Solar radiation; Precipitation; COVID-19; Pandemic; Meteorology; Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network; Time-series design; Two-stage time-series; distributed lag nonlinear models, Solar radiation, Original Research Article, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/11, Distributed lag nonlinear models, Covid-19 ; Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models ; Humidity ; Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network ; Precipitation ; Solar Radiation ; Temperature ; Time-series Design, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Time-series design
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