Time-series (1967 -1997) of environmental variables such as air and sea surface tem­perature (SST), precipitation, wind, Ekman transport, and mean sea level, as well as time-series (1985-1997) of recruitment of horse mackerel, were studied in Atlantic Ibe­rian waters. All time-series were analysed for autocorrelation. The results indicate a statistically significant relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and air temperature in Santander. In western Iberia, winter Ekman transport is significantly correlated with the annual Gulf Stream position and sea level with the winter Gulf Stream position. Horse mackerel recruitment is negatively correlated with the annual and spring values of air temperature in the Cantabrian Sea and SST and air tempera­ture in western Iberia. Correlation between recruitment and upwelling index is signifi­cant in spring and summer. Recruitment is also negatively correlated with the annual and winter Ekman transport. After multicolinearity analysis, a multivariate regression model of non-correlated variables (air temperature in Vigo and upwelling index) from April to September has been applied and explains 81.63% of the variance.

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