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The Science of The Total Environment
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COVID-19 effective reproduction number dropped during Spain's nationwide dropdown, then spiked at lower-incidence regions

Authors: Luis Santamaría; Joaquín Hortal;

COVID-19 effective reproduction number dropped during Spain's nationwide dropdown, then spiked at lower-incidence regions

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread worldwide. Spain has suffered one of the largest nationwide bursts, particularly in the highly populated areas of Madrid and Barcelona (two of the five largest conurbations in Europe). We used segmented regression analyses to identify shifts in the evolution of the effective reproduction number (Rt) reported for 16 Spanish administrative regions. We associate these breaking points with a timeline of key containment measures taken by national and regional governments, applying time lags for the time from contagion to case detection, with their associated errors. Results show an early decrease of Rt that preceded the nationwide lockdown; a generalized, sharp decrease in Rt associated with such lockdown; a low impact of the strengthened lockdown, with a flattening of Rt evolution in high-incidence regions, and even increases in Rt at low-incidence regions; and an increase in Rt associated to the relaxation of the lockdown measures in ten regions. These results evidence the importance of generalized lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 spread, and the limited effect of the subsequent application of a stricter lockdown (restrictions to all non-essential economic activities). Most importantly, they highlight the importance of maintaining strong social distancing measures and strengthening public health control during lockdown de-escalation.

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Keywords

SARS-CoV-2, Incidence, Pneumonia, Viral, COVID-19, Regional variation, Rt, De-escalation, Article, Policy responses, Europe, Betacoronavirus, Spain, Lockdown, Humans, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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