This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland¿urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.

This research received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement 243888 (FUME Project). Marta Gallardo was sponsored by a JAE-Predoc Grant from the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC). We specially thank Dr. David Riaño (CSIC-UC Davis) for editing this manuscript in its final stage and Pilar Echavarria (CSIC) for her assistance in re-designing cartographic figures

Peer reviewed