Aviation safety is essential for the healthy growth and sustainability of the global economy. The implementation of Safety Management Systems to support safe service delivery has become one of the most important goals within the airline industry over the last years. However, in most cases the involved organisations use unsophisticated methods based on risk matrices for the development of such systems. In this paper, we present models to forecast and assess the consequences of aviation safety occurrences as part of a framework for aviation safety risk management at state level.