Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most conspicuous examples of the environmental impact of recent climate change. Since SLR rates are not uniform around the planet, local and regional data are needed for proper adaptation plans. Pb-dated sediment cores were analyzed to determine the trends of sediment accretion rates (SARs) at three tropical saltmarshes in the Estero de Urias lagoon (Gulf of California, Mexico), in order to estimate the SLR trends during the past ~100 years, under the assumption that these ecosystems accrete at a similar rate to SLR. A chemometric approach, including multivariate statistical analysis (factor analysis) of geochemical data (including δC; δN; C/N ratios; and Br, Na, and Cl as proxies for marine transgression) was used to identify the marine transgression in the sediment records. Based on core geochemistry, only one of the three cores provided a long-term record attributable to marine transgression. SLR trends, estimated from SARs, showed increasing values, from a minimum of 0.73 ± 0.03 mm yr at the beginning of the 20th century and up to 3.87 ± 0.12 mm yr during the period 1990–2012. The estimated SLR trend between 1950 and 1970 was comparable to the tide gauge records in Mazatlan City for the same period. Results showed the caveats and strengths of this methodology to reconstruct decadal SLR trends from the sedimentary record, which can be used to estimate long-term SLR trends worldwide in regions where monitoring data are scarce or absent.

This work has been supported by the grants CONACyT CB2010-153492, PAPIIT-IN203313, CONACYT PDCPN2013-01/214349, and the CONACYT fellowship to JLSP.

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