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Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario: Incidence, Prevalence, and Forecasting of Cases and Trends

Authors: Ajayi, Toluwalope;

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario: Incidence, Prevalence, and Forecasting of Cases and Trends

Abstract

This thesis is an investigation into measures of disease frequency for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) in Ontario, as well as outbreak forecasts for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) in Ontario. Surveillance data from an industry-administered voluntary disease control program (DCP) were analysed to obtain estimates of incidence risk, incidence rate, and prevalence for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) between 2014 and 2016. The results indicate an overall decline in disease frequency measures, from a prevalence of 4.36% to 1.35% and 0.48% to 0.16% from 2014 to 2016, for PEDV and PDCoV respectively. For PEDV outbreak forecasts, incidence as well as prevalence and weather data were trained on Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Network models. The Random Forest model provided the best prediction for long-term PEDV trends, with the variable importance measure pointing to prevalence and low temperature as strong determinants for future PEDV outbreaks.

Country
Canada
Related Organizations
Keywords

classification and regression trees, disease forecasting, porcine epidemic diarrhea, disease surveillance, artificial neural networks, random forest, porcine deltacoronavirus

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
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