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Nonlinear spillovers in precious metals markets: A TCN-based extension of the Diebold-Yilmaz Framework

Nelineární přelévání na trzích s drahými kovy: Rozšíření Diebold-Yilmazova rámce na základě TCN
Authors: Novotný, Josef; Hájek, Petr;

Nonlinear spillovers in precious metals markets: A TCN-based extension of the Diebold-Yilmaz Framework

Abstract

This study proposes a nonlinear spillover framework for precious metals markets by integrating Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) into the Diebold-Yilmaz approach. We simulate shocks to approximate the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) without relying on linear restrictions. Using daily data from 2014-2023 on metal ETFs, futures, oil, equities, exchange rates, and sentiment indices, we uncover strong nonlinear connectedness, with a total spillover index of 95.22%. The VIX and the Shapiro-Sudhof-Wilson (SSW) sentiment index emerge as dominant net transmitters, while rolling analysis reveals shifts in spillovers around major macroeconomic and geopolitical events.

Country
Czech Republic
Related Organizations
Keywords

Spillover efekt, Nelineární finanční propojenost, Precious metal, Drahý kov, ETF, Nonlinear financial connectedness, Temporální konvoluční síť, Spillover effect, Temporal convolutional network

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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