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Uma Estimação da Curva de Phillips para Portugal

Authors: Rosa, Agostinho S.;

Uma Estimação da Curva de Phillips para Portugal

Abstract

A estimação da curva de Phillips para Portugal no período 1954-1995 com base em dados anuais, através da abordagem de Johansen, permite-os concluir que a variação dos custos unitários de trabalho são função decrescente da variação da taxa de desemprego e do erro de equilíbrio (entre a taxa de variação dos custos unitários de trabalho e a taxa de inflação) e função crescente da inflação externa e da variável artificial que traduz a Revolução de Abril de 1974. A taxa de desemprego não é significativa na relação de longo prazo, mas a sua variação é significativa na relação de curto prazo o que está de acordo com a curva de Phillips modificada, no caso de existência de histerese da taxa de desemprego. Assim, podemos dizer que a relação de Phillips original, assim como a curva de Phillips aumentada não se verificam em Portugal, no entanto a curva de Phillips modificada como relação entre a variação dos custos unitários de trabalho e a variação da taxa de desemprego e as expectativas inflacionistas verifica-se em Portugal no período estudado.

Country
Portugal
Related Organizations
Keywords

Cointegração, Curva de Phillips, Raízes Unitárias

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Green