
handle: 10174/40210
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar diferentes modelos de crescimento individual, tanto determinísticos como estocásticos, aplicados ao crescimento de bovinos da raça Mertolenga. Para tal, é analisado o desempenho dos modelos determinísticos de Gompertz, Verhulst e Bertalanffy-Richards, bem como os modelos estocásticos de Gompertz e de Bertalanffy-Richards. A estimação dos parâmetros foi realizada através dos métodos dos mínimos quadrados e da máxima verossimilhança, utilizando dados reais fornecidos pela Associação de Criadores de Bovinos da Raça Mertolenga (ACBM). Foram avaliados indicadores como a Raiz do Erro Quadrático Médio (REQM) e o Erro Médio Absoluto (EMA) para aferir a qualidade dos ajustes e previsões. As previsões dos modelos foram comparadas para identificar qual descreve melhor o crescimento de bovino, proporcionando maior precisão na modelação das curvas de crescimento. Os resultados contribuirão para uma melhor compreensão da importância de usar os modelos estocásticos na previsão do crescimento desta raça e melhorando produtividade da criação desta raça; - Abstract: Mathematical Models for Individual Growth: An Application to Cattle Growth - The present study aims to evaluate different models of individual growth, both deterministic and stochastic, applied to the growth of Mertolenga breed cattle. For this purpose, the performance of deterministic models such as Gompertz, Verhulst, and Bertalanffy-Richards was analyzed, as well as stochastic models of Gompertz and Bertalanffy-Richards. Parameter estimation was carried out using the least squares and maximum likelihood methods, employing real data provided by the Mertolenga Cattle Breeders Association (ACBM). Indicators such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were assessed to evaluate the quality of the fits and predictions. The model predictions were compared to identify which one best describes cattle growth, allowing for more accurate modeling of growth curves. The results will contribute to a better understanding of the importance of using stochastic models in the forecast the growth of this breed and improving the productivity of raising this breed.
Modelos de Crescimento Determinístico e Estocástico, Mertolengo Cattle, Deterministic and Stochastic Growth Models, EDE, Bovinos Mertolengos, Previsão, Forecasting
Modelos de Crescimento Determinístico e Estocástico, Mertolengo Cattle, Deterministic and Stochastic Growth Models, EDE, Bovinos Mertolengos, Previsão, Forecasting
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