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Aplicação e análise do modelo CAPM condicional na bolsa de valores portuguesa

Authors: Bruno, Marlene Sofia Falcão;

Aplicação e análise do modelo CAPM condicional na bolsa de valores portuguesa

Abstract

O CAPM estático é o modelo mais utilizado para avaliar o trade-off entre rentabilidade esperada e risco, baseando-se apenas num único período de tempo. No entanto, numa economia dinâmica deve-se admitir que o risco e o prémio de risco variam ao longo do tempo. Com o intuito de testar aquela variabilidade, Jagannathan e Wang (1996) desenvolveram o modelo CAPM condicional, na qual incluíram as variáveis: prémio de risco de mercado, rentabilidade do capital humano e tamanho das empresas. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é aplicar este modelo ao mercado acionista português. Estimou-se o modelo e concluiu-se que as únicas variáveis capazes de explicar a rentabilidade esperada do portfolio são a variável tamanho e a variável da rentabilidade do capital humano, e que o CAPM condicional é preferível ao CAPM estático. Os resultados são consistentes com os de Jagannathan e Wang (1996); ### Abstract: Application and analysis of the conditional CAPM model in the portuguese stock exchange The static CAPM is the most widely used model to evaluate the trade-off between expected return and risk, based on only a single period model. However, in a dynamic economy one must assume that the systematic risk and the risk premium vary over time. In order to test that variability, Jagannathan and Wang (1996) developed the conditional CAPM model, which included the variables: market risk premium, return on human capital and firm size. The main objective of this dissertation is to apply this model to the Portuguese equity market. We estimated the model and found that the only variables which are able to explain the expected return of the portfolio are variable size and variable return of human capital, and that the conditional CAPM is preferable to the static CAPM. The results are consistent with those of Jagannathan and Wang (1996).

Country
Portugal
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Keywords

Mercados financeiros, Financial markets, CAPM estático, Conditional CAPM, Portfolio, CAPM condicional, Static CAPM

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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