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The tracking ability of oil and gas exchanged traded funds (ETFs)

Authors: Cunha, Rui Miguel Domingues da;

The tracking ability of oil and gas exchanged traded funds (ETFs)

Abstract

Apesar do vasto reportório de trabalhos existentes sobre Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs), poucos são aqueles que têm analisado commodities ETFs e a respetiva adequabilidade como substitutos de investimentos diretos em commodities. Para analisar se esta classe específica de ETFs é uma boa alternativa, analisámos uma amostra de 11 ETFs e se seguiam os respetivos benchmarks. Para tal procedemos a uma análise de regressão linear, ao cálculo do tracking error, e uma análise de cointegração, sendo esta última focada na relação de longo prazo entre variáveis. As análises de regressões e tracking error evidenciam uma forte ligação com os benchmarks na maior parte dos ETFs, mas os testes de cointegração apresentam resultados díspares, sugerindo uma relação mais fraca no longo prazo para a maior parte dos ETFs. Por outro lado os ETFs que têm como benchmarks índices de commodities apresentam melhores resultados do que aqueles que seguem as commodities propriamente ditas. O uso de produtos derivados, nomeadamente futuros nestes ETFs, e o facto de os mesmos terem de ser constantemente renegociados (Roll Over) são uma das razões para a diferença de performances entre os ETFs e respetivos benchmarks.

Despite the vast literature on Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs), few are those focused on commodities ETFs and their suitability as a replacement for direct investments in commodities. To examine whether this specific class of ETFs is a good alternative we have analyzed the tracking ability of a sample of 11 ETFs and their respective benchmarks. To this end, we have performed a linear regression analysis, a tracking error analysis, and a cointegration analysis, the latter being focused on the long-term relationship. Regressions analyses and tracking error show a strong relationship in most ETFs, but cointegration tests show uneven results, suggesting a weaker relationship in the long run between ETFs and their benchmark. On the other hand the ETFs that follow benchmarks indexes have better results than those who follow the commodities themselves. The use of derivative products such as futures in these ETFs, and the fact that those must be constantly renegotiated (Roll Over) are one of the reasons for the difference in performance between ETFs and their benchmarks.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Cointegração, Commodities, Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Cointegration, Linear regressions, ETFs, G10, G11, Regressões lineares, Cointegração -- Cointegration, G Financial economics

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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