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Um agrupamento de turistas: modelação adequada?

Authors: Prata, Joel Adilson da Costa;

Um agrupamento de turistas: modelação adequada?

Abstract

The touristic rural zone in the north of Portugal is one of the areas chosen by some tourists who visit our Country. The auto-image of these tourists can be checked by means of attributes able to also characterize the visited destination. In this paper, the favorite methodology of finite mixture models for constitution and characterization of the segments of tourists on basis of attributes of auto-image is applied. In the modulation, the type of scale is reached – Semantic Differential – by two different ways: 1 – the base variables are modulated as metrics and a mixture of normal distributions is used; 2 – the base variables are modulated as ordinals and a multinomial mixture is used. The methodology of cross-validation is applied by using the rand indexes in order to compare the stability of the alternative solutions for Grouping, on basis on the modulation of the variables such as metrics or ordinals. In the developed work, the Grouping on basis of the ordinal variables has a bigger stability. This Grouping has been selected and characterized.

A zona turística rural no norte de Portugal é uma das áreas escolhidas por alguns turistas que visitam o nosso País. A auto-imagem desses turistas pode aferir-se mediante atributos capazes de caracterizar também o destino visitado. Neste trabalho aplica-se a metodologia de estimação de modelos de mistura finita para constituição e caracterização dos segmentos de turistas com base em atributos de autoimagem. Na modelação atende-se ao tipo de escala – Semântica Diferencial – de dois modos distintos: 1 – as variáveis base são modeladas como métricas e usada uma mistura de distribuições normais; 2 – as variáveis base são modeladas como ordinais e usada uma mistura de multinomiais. Aplica-se a metodologia de validação cruzada com o auxílio dos índices de concordância para comparar a estabilidade das soluções alternativas de agrupamento, com base na modelação das variáveis como métricas ou ordinais. No trabalho desenvolvido o agrupamento com base nas variáveis ordinais tem uma maior estabilidade. Este agrupamento é seleccionado e caracterizado.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Grouping, Rand index, Agrupamento, Cross-validation, Validação cruzada, Finite Mixture Model, Índice de concordância, Modelo de Mistura Finita

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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