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Equity valuation: AstraZeneca, PLC

Authors: Santos, Rafaela Alexandra Mendes dos;

Equity valuation: AstraZeneca, PLC

Abstract

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estimar o justo valor da ação da AstraZeneca, Plc (AZN) a 31 de dezembro de 2022. Após uma análise da empresa e do setor em que se insere, são apresentadas três abordagens para avaliar a empresa. A AstraZeneca, é uma multinacional inglesa que opera no setor farmacêutico e teve um grande envolvimento na crise pandémica do Covid-19, através do desenvolvimento de vacinas contra o vírus, o que impulsionou as suas vendas durante 2021. A empresa é responsável por todo o processo de investigação, desenvolvimento, teste, produção, divulgação e venda de medicamentos próprios. As duas primeiras análises são análises DCF com base nas demonstrações financeiras da AstraZeneca. A primeira análise – Firm Valuation- usa o WACC como taxa de desconto, enquanto que a segunda análise – Equity Valuation- utiliza o Custo do Capital Próprio como taxa de desconto. A última análise, que complementa as duas primeiras abordagens de avaliação, é uma avaliação relativa através do Método dos Múltiplos. De seguida é realizada uma análise de sensibilidade, com vista a compreender as suas possíveis variações. Através da aplicação do primeiro método, o preço alvo por ação da AZN a 31 de dezembro 2022 foi estimado em $52.12, o que comparado com o preço por ação de $67.8 a que a ação fechou a 31 de dezembro 2022, conclui-se que esta se encontrava sobreavaliada em 23%, pelo que se recomenda a venda da mesma. Através do segundo método, a conclusão é também que a ação se encontrava sobreavaliada (em 14%), pelo que a recomendação é a venda da mesma. A avaliação relativa corrobora as conclusões dos dois primeiros métodos de avaliação.

This dissertation aims to present the estimation of the fair value of AstraZeneca,Plc (AZN) at the end of December 31, 2022. After a review of the company and its sector, three approached will be presented to value the company. AstraZeneca is a British multinational company that operates in the pharmaceutical sector and it had a relevant position throughout the Covid-19 pandemic on 2020-21, through the development of the vaccines to prevent the virus to spread, which increased the company’s revenue during 2021. The company is responsible for all the process of investigation, development, testing, production, advertising and selling of own medicines. The two first analyses are DCF analyses based on the company’s financial statements. The first one – Firm Valuation – uses the WACC as the discount rate, whereas the second one – Equity Valuation – uses the cost of equity as the discount rate. The third analysis, which complements the first two analyses, is a relative valuation using the Multiples Method. The share price is then submitted to a sensitivity analysis, in order to better understand the robustness of the assumptions made in the former valuations. AstraZeneca valuation using the Firm Valuation pointed to a price target of $52.12 per share by the end of 2022, which comparing with the price of $67.8 per share in 2022, we can conclude that AZN’s share price was overvalued by 23% and therefore, the recommendation is to sell. Equity Valuation pointed to the same conclusion, with AZN’s share price being overvalued by 14%. Relative Valuation corroborated the findings of the above models.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

DCF Discounted Cash Flow --, Indústria farmacêutica -- pharmaceutical industry, Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, AstraZeneca, G32, Avaliação por múltiplos Valuation using multiples, G Financial economics, Valor justo Fair value, G30

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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