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Impacto da política monetária no investimento do setor privado em Portugal

Authors: Teixeira, Abraão Altino Ferreira;

Impacto da política monetária no investimento do setor privado em Portugal

Abstract

Esta dissertação fornece evidências sobre o impacto dos canais de transmissão da política monetária no investimento privado. Para tal, combina 309 observações ao nível dos 17 setores de atividade em Portugal, usando dados anuais entre o período de 2004 a 2021. Com o intuito de analisar estes efeitos, recorre à técnica econométrica de dados em painel e conjugam-se variáveis do desempenho do setor de atividade, dos incentivos à atividade, da conjuntura macroeconómica e da ação da política monetária (convencional e não convencional) na equação do investimento. O estudo evidencia que existe um impacto, com relação negativa, das ações da política monetária no investimento privado, quer seja pelo custo do capital quer seja pelo canal de crédito. Por outro lado, revela que os incentivos (subsídios à exploração) exercem um efeito positivo no investimento. Analisando as variáveis macroeconómicas, é demonstrado que o crescimento do PIB favorece positivamente o investimento, mas o aumento da incerteza económica afeta negativamente o investimento. Por fim, é constatado que 8 dos 17 setores de atividade da economia portuguesa, essencialmente os que estão associados aos serviços, apresentam, no período em análise, um investimento produtivo abaixo da média.

This dissertation provides empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy transmission channels on private investment. To do that, it combines 309 observations at the level of 17 sectors of activity in Portugal by using annual data between 2004 to 2021. In order to address such effects, we uses a panel data econometric technique by combining variables related to the performance of the activity sector, incentives for activity, the macroeconomic environment and the monetary policy action (conventional and non-conventional) in the investment equation. The study shows that there is a negative impact of monetary policy actions on private investment, either due to the cost of capital or due to the credit channel. On the other hand, it reveals that incentives (subsidies for exploration) represent a positive effect on investment. Analyzing the macroeconomic variables, it is demonstrated that the GDP growth positively favors investment, whereas the increase in economic uncertainty negatively affects investment. Finally, it is noted that 8 of the 17 sectors of activity in the Portuguese economy, essentially those associated with services, present below-average investment in the period under analysis.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Investimentos, Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Uncertainty, E Macroeconomics and monetary economics, E22, Política monetária -- Monetary policy, Investment, Incerteza, E52

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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