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Inflation-linked bonds: comparação com treasuries e alocação na fronteira eficiente

Authors: Salvador, Joana Paula;

Inflation-linked bonds: comparação com treasuries e alocação na fronteira eficiente

Abstract

Nesta dissertação é feita uma análise comparativa entre as obrigações indexadas à inflação (TIPS) e as Treasuries nos EUA através da rendibilidade final obtida de cada obrigação. É também realizado um estudo do efeito da inclusão de TIPS em carteiras com estratégias de alocação de recursos a longo prazo. Para o primeiro caso, considerou-se um investimento de $100,000 para a obrigação indexada à inflação e o mesmo valor para a obrigação nominal, ambas pertencentes ao mercado dos EUA com maturidade igual a 10 anos, verificou-se que a rendibilidade da 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Note é maior que a 10-Year Note devido à subida bastante significativa do CPI-U verificado desde Outubro de 2008 a Janeiro de 2009, isto significa que dado que os cash-flows gerados pelas TIPS acompanham o rácio de índice de inflação, o reembolso na maturidade foi maior que o da obrigação nominal. No segundo caso, calculou-se as rendibilidades anuais das obrigações acima referidas e do índice Standard & Poors 500 com base nos preços diários desde 13 de Maio de 1999 a 13 de Janeiro de 2009, com vista a obter as respectivas correlações. Verificou-se que a 10- Year IIN apresenta uma correlação mais negativa com o índice S&P 500 do que a 10-Year N e uma correlação positiva com o índice de inflação enquanto que, a 10-Year N e o CPI-U apresentam um relação mais baixa com o índice de preços. Deste modo, ao incluir a 10-Year IIN na carteira (constituída por acções do índice S&P 500 e pela 10-Year Note) a rendibilidade aumenta e o desvio-padrão é menor.

In this paper, inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) and Treasuries from the United States, are compared and analyzed by their final return obtained from each bond. The effect of the inclusion of portfolio TIPS with strategy allocations with long term resources, are also analyzed. In the first case, it was considered that a $100,000 investment was made in a inflation-linked bond, and the same value in a nominal bond, both of it from the EUA market and with a 10 years maturity. It was verified that the final return from a 10-Year Inflation Indexed Note, is bigger than a 10-Years Note one, due to a significant raise of the CPI-U, verified since October 2008 still January 2009. Meaning that TIPS cash-flows and the Inflation Index, are directly connected. The reimbursement is bigger in maturity than in a nominal bond. In the second case, it was calculated the annual return from the bonds already mentioned above, and from the S&P 500, based in diary prices since May 13th of 1999 until January 13th of 2009, in order to obtain each correlation. It was verified that a 10- Year IIN as a more negative correlation with a S&P 500 Index, than a 10-Year N, and a positive correlation with an inflation index, while the 10- Year N and the CPI- U, have a lower relation with the price index. This way, including a 10- Year IIN into the portfolio (consisted by stocks of the S&P 500 Index and by a 10- Year N), return increases while the standard deviation goes down.

JEL classification: G11; G12

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Bonds, Treasury, Inflation

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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