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Risco, retorno e falta de liquidez dos produtos bancários no mercado português

Authors: Figueiredo, Maria João Pereira;

Risco, retorno e falta de liquidez dos produtos bancários no mercado português

Abstract

Neste trabalho, pretendeu-se compreender a relação entre o risco, o retorno e a falta de liquidez, nos sectores da banca e das tecnologias da informação do mercado português no período de 2000 a 2015. Para estudar esta relação foram utilizadas empresas de dois sectores diferentes, o BCP, o BPI e o BS para o financeiro, a Compta, a Glintt e a Reditus para o de tecnologia de informação. Foi usada a metodologia Vector Autorregressivo (VAR), de onde se obtiveram os resultados para a causalidade à Granger, função Impulso-Resposta e decomposição da variância. Ao serem aplicados os métodos anteriores, verificou-se uma influência muito forte entre o retorno e a volatilidade para cada empresa. Observam-se comportamentos opostos entre as duas variáveis, tanto no sector financeiro como no sector das TIC. O efeito da falta de liquidez, nas restantes variáveis, tem pouco significado ou é praticamente inexistente quando se analisam as variáveis por empresa. Porém, esse resultado é alterado quando se aplicam os métodos para um sistema com duas empresas do mesmo sector, uma vez que a influência da falta de liquidez nas restantes variáveis, é agora mais visível nas restantes variáveis. A falta de liquidez reage maioritariamente em oposição ao comportamento do retorno, mas positivamente em relação à volatilidade. Foi possível concluir que dentro do sector financeiro o BPI influencia o BCP e o BS, mas o contrário não acontece. No sector das TIC, observa-se uma influência reciproca entre todas as empresas

Throughout this work, the main purpose has been to understand the relationship between risk, return and illiquidity, considering the banking and the information technology sectors of the Portuguese market, from 2000 to 2015. In order to evaluate this relationship, organizations from two different sectors were chosen: BCP, BPI and the BS for the financial market; Compta, Glintt and Reditus for the information technology market. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology was used, providing inputs for the Granger causality, the impulse-response function and the variance decomposition. The application of the previous methods validated a very strong influence between the return and volatility for each company. An opposite behavior can be observed between these two variables, both in the financial and in the IT sectors. The illiquidity consequences, in the remaining variables, have little significance or is nearly non-existent, when considering the variables per company. However, a different result occurs when the methods are applied to a system with two companies of the same sector: illiquidity influence, in the remaining variables, is now more visible in the remaining variables. The illiquidity mainly reacts in opposition to the return behavior, but positively in relation to volatility. The analysis enabled to conclude that, in the financial sector, BPI influences BCP and BS, but the opposite does not happen. In the IT sector, there is a reciprocal influence between all companies.

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Portugal
Keywords

Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais, Illiquidity, Economia financeira, Sector financeiro, Investimento financeiro, Risco financeiro, Volatilidade, IT sector, Sector TIC, Metodologia VARMetodologia VAR -- Vectores autoregressivos, Produto financeiro, Return, Liquidez, Falta de liquidez, Volatility, Índice PSI20, Financial sector, Banca, Retorno, :Ciências Sociais [Domínio/Área Científica]

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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