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Optimal control theory and portfolio optimization

Authors: Setihe, Omar;

Optimal control theory and portfolio optimization

Abstract

The objective of the thesis is to use optimal control theory in order to optimize portfolios. More precisely, using principles from calculus of variation in order to define the portfolio problem with reasonable constraints to maximize the profit while minimizing the risk or vice versa. Theoretical cases would be solved with simple constrains, and real application part would be made in Tallinn stock market. The latter is still in development with sixteen companies listed, fourteen which are taken in the analysis. The Values at Risk (VaR) method was the most successful in generating profit but really affected by the randomness of the solution and the nature of the market. The most stable method was the Conditional Values at Risk (CVaR) growing the portfolio slowly but surely. The whole market seems to be suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in an sharp drop in the stocks making the future returns negative.

Countries
Germany, Estonia
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Keywords

Euleri võrrand, dynamic programming, Euler’s equation, tinglik VaR mudel, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, VaR mudel, ARIMA mudel, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) model, stochastic optimal control, Markowitz portfolio, Value at Risk (VaR) model, Markowitzi portfoolio, dünaamiline programmeerimine, stohhastiline optimaalne kontroll

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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